Google & the Twitter ‘Threat’

I’ve been meaning for about a week to respond to this Mercury News piece and John Battelle’s discussion about Twitter and Google. Both say that “real-time” search (offered by Twitter) is the next potential threat to Google’s dominance of the market. I have a somewhat different take, although my view is kind of an extension of what Battelle is alluding to.

There’s no way that Twitter can replace Google. Facebook didn’t. Think about it. But there are some current Google use cases that Twitter could, if it evolved somewhat, start to erode and later perhaps come to dominate.

I’ve been talking for a number of months now about how Twitter has an opportunity to move into what, over at LMS, we have called “social directory assistance,” an idea that came out of discussions with Orange’s Mark Plakias two years ago. It’s something I wrote about in late 2007 over at LMS in the context of Mosio. And it’s a bit different than the new catch phrase being used in the pieces I link to: “real-time search.”

In terms of news, happenings and events, Twitter is a great way to hear what people are saying or catch “buzz.” (In fact, where’s the Twitter “buzz ranking”?) In that sense it can provide “real-time” information that Google does not. But despite the Summize acquisition, Twitter is currently not a search engine and is full of useless noise. Any search, on any topic, I do at Search.Twitter.com is going to be full of irrelevant information. It’s very inefficient in most respects as a search engine.

However, Twitter might evolve into something quite interesting (Yahoo! can do this with oneConnect/Mobile as well). This would be a scenario in which I would be able to query my network of contacts/followers with a question (most likely but not exclusively in a mobile environment):

  • What’s the best dive bar in Midtown Manhattan?
  • Does anyone know a good dentist in Walnut Creek, CA?
  • How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop?
  • Who won the best supporting actress award last week?
  • What group recorded “Time of the Season”?

You can do this now with Mosio or ChaCha or Text411/kgb. Mosio relies on one’s contacts whereas the other two use paid agents, though many are students, stay at home moms, retirees, etc.

With conventional DA you don’t have this sort of flexibility and can’t ask most of these questions. With search engines you can often get this information but the process — especially in mobile — can be cumbersome. So the “ask a human a specific question” model is very efficient and offers a potentially much better user experience. (If the agents are paid, there’s a question of cost and scalability that arises. But if they’re just other people “out there” there are no such issues.)

Another potential problem with the anonymous-human scenario is that I may not trust the answer (as much) if I’m not asking a factual question. If I’m asking a question such as “What’s the best place in Palo Alto to have a business lunch?” I would prefer a recommendation from a trusted/known source.

Online I can go to Yelp or Citysearch and look at consensus views and ratings. But in my vision of Twitter’s future I simply query my Twitter network and I get a bunch of responses to the lunch recommendation question. And I get them more or less instantaneously — or in “real time” if you prefer.

Making good on this scenario would require some technical tweaks, as opposed to Tweets. But it’s not that far fetched. Mosio can do this now but it doesn’t have the brand or critical mass that Twitter already does.

The kind of  functionality I’m describing might cause people, especially in mobile, to use a service like this before they tried conventional search, as a back up. That’s the primary “threat” to Google from Twitter. Twitter would need to evolve and change to make good on this as I see it. But it could certainly be done.

A secondary though much lesser threat that I see is that Twitter could become a substitute in some cases for AdWords. Twitter doesn’t have any advertising programs currently. What I’m suggesting is that Twitter becomes a very efficient promotional tool and reduces the need for some (not all) to spend on AdWords.

How about this: an initial AdWords campaign that prompts people, “to receive deals, product alerts, etc.” to sign up to follow a brand or retailer on Twitter. That wouldn’t eliminate the need to advertise in search or do SEO but in some cases people might not spend as much on Google ads. Dell has already shown how Twitter can be used very effectively as a promotional tool.

Stepping back, Twitter is never going to be a substitute for Google — and especially if Google buys it — but it could erode growth at the margins and/or turn Google into a secondary “use case” for a large number of people in a mobile context, assuming Twitter evolves into this social DA tool that I’m advocating.

___

This “social DA” scenario would not only be a potential threat to Google but to Yellowpages.com and others.

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25 Responses to “Google & the Twitter ‘Threat’”

  1. SoniaC Says:

    I agree with the amount of useless noise being a barrier. It appears that there’s a lot of work being done to help classify it all. I wonder if they’ll go as far as to change the user entries to self-select (tag) basic streams – i.e. “MyDirectory Suggestions” or “MyProduct Reviews”?

    So much potential…

  2. Will Says:

    These kinds of things would, I think, take Twitter out of its core competency and dilute it into “just another social webservice” like MySpace and now Facebook are dealing with. Don’t poke me with annoying app invites or force me to wade through stuff. With Twitter everyone says what they want and people listen if they so choose. That’s it. If it stops being fun and easy, I’ll stop using it.

  3. The Business Of Social Directory Assistance | chrisbrogan.com Says:

    [...] think Greg Sterling is spot on. He’s talking about whether Google should feel threatened by Twitter (and similar [...]

  4. Will Scott Says:

    Greg,

    There have been a bunch of recent write-ups on twitter promotions. It’s one of the few overtly commercial, community accepted, behaviors.

    What I haven’t seen yet, which might be a way for the twitter team to monetize would be a combination of real-time reputation management / promotion. Trigger words in a twitter search launching an @bot with an “appropriate” message.

    I’ve quoted “appropriate” above because some things are never appropriate, but it’s an interesting concept to be sure.

    I’m sure someone’s doing this now, but the bots are likely getting banned with great frequency.

    Will

  5. SocialNetworksGuru.TV - Your Definitive Social Networking Resources from Social Media Marketing to Social Media Optimization. Says:

    [...] View post:  Google [...]

  6. SoniaC Says:

    I love that Skittles just rocked this story!

    Good timing Greg…

  7. @chandlerhora Says:

    This is an idea I have been toying around since 2006 after listening to this story about the Vietnamese 1080 service.

    http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5125742

  8. Google results on Twitter « Thoughts on Digital Marketing and Media Says:

    [...] 4, 2009 · No Comments During the past few weeks, there has been a lot of discussion about whether Twitter’s “real time search” could pose a [...]

  9. Get Twitter Search Results Integrated into Google Search Results | Microblink Says:

    [...] Mark Carey (@mthacks) points out, “there has been a lot of discussion about whether Twitter’s “real time search” could pose a [...]

  10. » The Outlook for Search Engine Marketing Says:

    [...] discussion continues and many experts see Twitter search as being the second coming of Christ. Probably Google’s main misstate is in treating [...]

  11. Twitter, Vark & ‘Real-Time’ Local Search « Screenwerk Says:

    [...] been writing about the potential evolution of Twitter into a real-time Q&A tool both here and at LMS.) Danny also talks about the recently launched Vark (from former [...]

  12. James Governor’s Monkchips » Cloudforce 2009: On Salesforce and Crowd Sourcing by Cloud Sourcing Says:

    [...] MT-Hacks puts it: During the past few weeks, there has been a lot of discussion about whether Twitter’s “real time search” could pose a [...]

  13. Turing YP Sites into Recommendations Engines « Screenwerk Says:

    [...] emerging trend toward real time recommendations for local. Previously, I said the following about Twitter and Google: Online I can go to Yelp or Citysearch and look at consensus views and ratings. But in my vision of [...]

  14. Turning YP Sites into Recommendations Engines « LocalLab : Foire aux Infos Says:

    [...] emerging trend toward real time recommendations for local. Previously, I said the following about Twitter and Google: Online I can go to Yelp or Citysearch and look at consensus views and ratings. But in my vision of [...]

  15. Scott Million Says:

    Yes, definitely I use Twitter for my seach engine marketing campaign because people can say whats on their mind, and people will follow you if they are interested in what you’re tweeting. If they choose to change their platform I don’t think that it would be a sensation as it is these days.

  16. Realtime Twitter Search Results on Google | DAWG FILE Says:

    [...] the past few weeks, there has been a lot of discussion about whether Twitter’s “real time search” could pose a [...]

  17. Twitter is Real-Time + Public-Posting « Predicting What Consumers Want to Buy Says:

    [...] May 20, 2009 Facebook , google , privacy , twitter 0 Comments You may have noticed the frenzy of excitement about real-time search sparked by the continuing explosive growth of Twitter.  Even [...]

  18. De toekomst van zoeken op internet is realtime search Says:

    [...] ontwikkelingen op het gebied van search, ofwel zoeken op internet, spitsen zich toe op het nu.  Lees ook deze berichten maar eens.  Realtime zoeken zal een steeds voornamere rol gaan spelen in het [...]

  19. “Help Engine” Aardvark Makes Twitter An Onramp For Q&A | Search Engine Optimization & Internet Marketing (SEO & SEM) Blog Says:

    [...] as Q&A tools, although the response quality and volume is generally uneven in my experience. I once thought that Twitter would develop a service similar to Vark but I don’t believe that it will at this [...]

  20. דיווח מיוחד : עדכוני טוויטר במנוע החיפוש של גוגל | Newsgeek Says:

    [...] הספקולציות שנשמעו סביב האיום שעלולה טוויטר להוות לגוגל, באמצעות מנגנון חיפוש בזמן אמת שהציגה החברה. [...]

  21. # Google Showing Realtime Recent Tweets in Search Results Says:

    [...] the past few weeks and months, there has been a lot of discussion about whether Twitter’s "real time search" could pose a threat [...]

  22. whoisbid Says:

    I’d be interested to know what people think right now about this . It’s now 2011

  23. bnaat Says:

    This is the first site that has actually worked for me

  24. blogging history Says:

    blogging history…

    [...]Google & the Twitter ‘Threat’ « Screenwerk[...]…

  25. private Says:

    private…

    [...]Google & the Twitter ‘Threat’ « Screenwerk[...]…

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