It’s useful to look back at the survey data to see what the initial reactions were from consumers after the iPad announcement. Some of those surveys predicted failure or only modest sales. Here’s what Retrevo survey data showed:
This is a half empty/half full story, with Retrevo playing up the “I’m no longer interested” angle a bit too heavily. I had always believed the iPad would sell after consumers got chance to see and fondle the device. There were also competing surveys indicating high levels of interest among consumers.
Yesterday, however, Retrevo released new data showing a meaningful number of consumers were substituting the iPad for netbook purchases:
These data come out of a larger analysis that reflects the decline (at least in the US) of netbooks.
According to one financial analyst’s estimates iPad production is cranking along at 1M to 1.5M units per month and might go as high as 2.5M units. At that rate, we’re probably looking at iPad sales of nearly 7M by the end of the year, not counting international. However that momentum could be interrupted if super-cheap “good enough” Android tablets hit the market in the second half.