iPad: Then & Now

It’s useful to look back at the survey data to see what the initial reactions were from consumers after the iPad announcement. Some of those surveys predicted failure or only modest sales. Here’s what Retrevo survey data showed:

This is a half empty/half full story, with Retrevo playing up the “I’m no longer interested” angle a bit too heavily. I had always believed the iPad would sell after consumers got chance to see and fondle the device. There were also competing surveys indicating high levels of interest among consumers.

Yesterday, however, Retrevo released new data showing a meaningful number of consumers were substituting the iPad for netbook purchases:

These data come out of a larger analysis that reflects the decline (at least in the US) of netbooks.

According to one financial analyst’s estimates iPad production is cranking along at 1M to 1.5M units per month and might go as high as 2.5M units. At that rate, we’re probably looking at iPad sales of nearly 7M by the end of the year, not counting international. However that momentum could be interrupted if super-cheap “good enough” Android tablets hit the market in the second half.

6 Responses to “iPad: Then & Now”

  1. Tim Cohn Says:

    Can super-cheap “good enough” entries steal a refreshed and differentiated nascent category leader’s thunder this early in the cycle?

  2. Greg Sterling Says:

    That all remains to be seen as my comment suggests. Right now we only have the promise of Android tablets. But using the handset analogy, many people who would have bought iPhones if it was more widely available have opted for Android, which is still inferior in most respects (even post Froyo).

    That’s not about price so much as carrier availability. But the iPad has created the market and some people who might hestitate because of price could opt for Android tablets — if they’re cheaper and “good enough.”

  3. Tim Cohn Says:

    If they don’t take that bet someone else will.

    Whoever does had better hurry though.

    Even with an entry by the second half, the score at best still looks like 70 -30.

  4. Greg Sterling Says:

    The iPad is a great device regardless of the Flash issue. It will be very challenging for rivals to match its usability

  5. Tim Cohn Says:

    Indeed… usability is the soul of Apple and the key to consumer’s wallets.

    I think Apple has not only proven it to their customers but to the financial markets as well.

    Apple’s near matching of Microsoft’s market capitalization confirms it.

  6. Fail: What the ‘Insider’ Debate Misses re the iPad « Screenwerk Says:

    […] new consumer survey data (which itself were incorrect or incorrectly interpreted iPad demand) echo the pricing variable as probably the most important in […]

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