Ad Gloom Extends to All of Local

picture-125This morning Erik Sass, who typically writes about the increasingly dire predicament of print newspapers, today brings that sense of gloom to the broader local ad outlook for 2009 in MediaPost.

Here are some choice bits from his article:

[Goldman Sachs analyst Mark] Wienkes added that local advertising will suffer larger losses than national, with local TV station advertising falling by as much as 17%. Wienkes also sees declines of 5% to 10% across radio, out-of-home, magazines and newspapers.

According to the TVB, total spot advertising will decline by 7% to 11% in 2009, with local spot down 4% to 8%. In fact, the declines have already begun: The TVB also said that total spot revenues for 2008 will probably come in 7% lower than 2007. The original forecast, released in early September, was revised in October to reflect the rapid worsening of the economic situation.

Radio will also take big hits from collapsing local revenues, which traditionally make up more than two-thirds of its total revenues. For the year-to-date, local revenues are down 8%, and the decline appeared to accelerate in the third quarter, with a 10% drop.

Robert Coen of Universal McCann predicts a 12% decrease in total newspaper revenues in 2009.

Yellow Pages–long a bulwark of local advertising–will also face a rapid deterioration in the advertising environment, according to Borrell Associates, which predicted in July that print directories would lose about $5 billion of ad revenue over the next five years; that equals about 40% of their projected revenue for 2008.

Some of these percentages and numbers may be imprecise or too aggressive in their downward predictions, but directionally they’re all correct. What else can we say except: hang on.

Borrell Associates recently revised downward their local online ad forecast for 2009. Furthermore, as I’ve tried to argue, we’re not simply seeing a direct migration of SMB ad dollars from traditional to the Internet. It’s a much more complicated picture.

___

Related: Here’s a bit of “good” news; spot cable firm NCC lands $1 billion in sales.

3 Responses to “Ad Gloom Extends to All of Local”

  1. Will Scott Says:

    Hey Greg,

    I think this actually dovetails nicely with your piece regarding WebVisible’s perception of costs for local.

    Clearly WebVisible’s got company in the local online ad aggregation department but when you consider the cost to launch a local media campaign compared to that to launch a local online campaign they don’t compare.

    As such, it’s easy to see why SMBs in particular the bulk of local, local advertising (as opposed to national, local placements) are moving so quick to drop traditional and pick up online.

    But, as we know, the killer app isn’t the app necessarily, it’s the communication of the app’s value.

    Will

  2. Another Negative Local Media Forecast « Screenwerk Says:

    […] an earlier MediaPost roundup of other negative local ad forecasts released […]

  3. This morning Erik Sass, who typically writes about the increasingly dire predicament of print newspapers, today brings that sense of gloom to the broader local ad outlook for 2009 in … | Riaz Kanani Says:

    […] broader local ad outlook for 2009 in … Posted on 27 November, 2008 by Riaz Kanani TweetAd Gloom Extends to All of Local This entry was posted in Uncategorized by Riaz Kanani. Bookmark the […]

Comments are closed.


%d bloggers like this: