Can Search Predict the Elections’ Outcome?

Search queries have been famously called a “database of Intentions” (a term I believe was coined by John Battelle). It has been suggested that the history or pattern of search queries can be used for all sorts of product planning and development as well as myriad other predictive uses.

One question Search Marketer Tim Cohn (a frequent commeter on this blog) asks is: Does Google already hold data that show how the US presidential election is likely to turn out?

It’s a complex question because search queries are often triggered by news events, but longer term trends may indicate the likely outcome of the election. Cohn compares traditional polling data with Google search query data and concludes that relative Google query volumes are tracking presidential polls.

Here’s comScore data (Jan-June) on relative search query volumes for the candidates:

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Related: Obama like Google, McCain like AOL . . .

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