Whither ‘E-Commerce’?

This holiday season was very bleak. From the AP yesterday:

The most dramatic pullback in consumer spending in decades could transform the retail landscape, as thousands of stores and whole malls close down. And analysts expect prolonged woes in the industry as the dramatic changes in shopping behavior could linger for another two or three years amid worries about the deteriorating economy and rising layoffs . . .

Holiday sales fell from 2 percent to 4 percent compared to a year ago, according to SpendingPulse, a division of MasterCard Advisors. Excluding gas and car sales, they dropped between 5.5 percent and 8 percent from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24, as key categories from luxury to electronics posted double-digit sales declines. Sales of electronics and appliances fell almost 27 percent, for example.

But just as many traditional retailers may fail or file for bankruptcy protection, large numbers of etailers will also suffer the same fate. When the smoke clears/dust settles/etc., we may have an “e-commerce” landscape dominated by traditional retailers and a few trusted online brands (e.g., Amazon).

Here are ForeSee Results’ holiday consumer satisfaction ratings for etailers (80 is the satisfaction threshold):

According to ForSee Results:

All 40 websites are rated on a 100-point scale. The study found that a highly satisfied online shopper is 73% more likely to purchase online, 38% more likely to purchase offline, 75% more likely to recommend than is a dissatisfied website shopper . . . The only two e-retailers scoring above 80 on the study’s 100–point scale (generally considered the threshold for excellence by the ACSI) are Amazon and Netflix, both at 84. QVC was a distant third at 79.

Online “shopping” is generally for price comparisons and research. Traditional stores are for buying. People buy online for convenience and not generally for price.

Online only retailers that haven’t established a trusted brand are largely going to disappear.

Online and mobile distribution of local inventory data is also going to eat into e-commerce. In some limited number of cases involving mobile price checks in the store, people will choose to buy online (at Amazon chiefly) when they don’t need a product immediately and there’s a meaningful price break online.