In what is sure to win no friends among print yellow pages publishers, Borrell Associates has published a report that predicts:
[T]he yellow pages industry will lose $39% of its in annual revenue over the next five years, amounting to a loss of $5 billion in annual revenue by 2013. Meanwhile, there is a simultaneous increase in the industry’s “addressable market” of search engine advertising and local online video, giving publishers a larger cache of advertising products to sell. Video shows the most promise, growing from a $1.4 billion category this year to $7.6 billion in 2013.
That loss of revenue cannot be made up online and would be catastrophic for the print yellow pages industry. I’m hoping to get a look at the document and do a further write up if permitted.
Screenwerk 
July 29, 2008 at 8:40 pm
Has Borrell or anyone projected Newspaper losses five or ten years out?
July 29, 2008 at 9:32 pm
[…] That’s right, according to Borrell, in the next five years, 39% of ad spend in yellow pages will be gone (mostly moving online.) That equates to somewhere in the neighborhood of $5 billion according to the report (and also reported on by Greg Sterling). […]
July 30, 2008 at 5:08 am
Re newspapers . . . yes, I assume so. However, I don’t have that information at my immediate disposal.
July 30, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Indeed we have…. Greg, Fig. 1.1 shows our forecast for each of the 11 media categories. Feel free to reprint it if you have a way. Otherwise, here’s what I can give you. From 2008 to 2013, the total decline in revenues for each media category is: Directories, -38.9%, Direct Mail, -32.0%, Telemarketing, -28.9%, Newspapers -11.0%, Radio, -7.0%, Other Print, -3.4% (magazines and alternative newspapers), Broadcast TV, -2.1%, and now for the gainers…. Online, +22.7, Out of Home, 30.2%, Cable, +54.8%, Cinema, +313.8%. This is all tempered by the fact that things like Cinema, showing the largest gain, is a very small category ($1.8b this year). So while you might see a 39% drop in directory advertising and 11% drop in newspaper advertising, each equate to the same $5b loss of annual revenue when comparing 2008 spending levels with our 2013 forecast.
July 30, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Thanks Gordon
July 30, 2008 at 5:33 pm
The general audience generally declines?
July 30, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Newspapers only down 11% while directories are down 38.9%? Newspapers seem to be losing revenues at a greater rate than that right now, and their big cash cow, classified advertising, is continuing to weaken, not strengthen. Not sure if this revenue number includes the selling price of the papers (which looks like its going to be increasing across the board), but either way, that increase in selling price should lead to fewer people buying, meaning smaller ad base and smaller revenues. So I’m not sure this all sounds right to me….
July 30, 2008 at 6:06 pm
I am with Brad on this…
July 31, 2008 at 11:27 am
[…] to more nimble competitors who aren’t protecting traditional revenue streams (except YP). The overall report isn’t quite as dire for YP, notwithstanding the sensational title “end of yellow […]
July 31, 2008 at 12:45 pm
[…] fairly dire revenue projections for both local newspapers and print yellow pages ($5 billion in projected print revenue losses in five years). The newspaper angle is picked up today by the Wall Street Journal and PaidContent, […]
July 31, 2008 at 5:35 pm
[…] fairly dire revenue projections for both local newspapers and print yellow pages ($5 billion in projected print revenue losses in five years). The newspaper angle is picked up today by the Wall Street Journal and PaidContent, […]
August 1, 2008 at 10:46 pm
[…] fairly dire revenue projections for both local newspapers and print yellow pages ($5 billion in projected print revenue losses in five years). The newspaper angle is picked up today by the Wall Street Journal and PaidContent, […]
August 4, 2008 at 8:53 am
[…] Trusted Places (which is A Fuller View favourite!)… All I can say is this is more fuel for bye bye Yellow Pages which no bad […]