Comments on: Will Print YP Suffer in Recessionary ‘08?

By: John Mazur ReachLocal

John Mazur ReachLocal — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 00:20:03 +0000

Hey Greg -

You are correct that the tipping point has come on the consumer side of our business, and I suspect the decline could even be greater than 10% in some markets. At the end of the day, the SME calls the shots on where they spend the $$$, — as they are further educated on new technology and consumer touchpoints online the choice to put more spend where their customers are searching will be inevitable as you have been saying for years. It is so clear that this is a rolling snowball for print. The focus for all of us serving the local business or the local consumer is to provide products and services that deliver real value that can be VALIDATED by the user (be it a consumer searching or an SME advertising on/offline).

Thanks for the great post!

By: Greg Sterling

Greg Sterling — Wed, 30 Jan 2008 01:24:46 +0000

Don’t know.

By: Pamela

Pamela — Wed, 30 Jan 2008 00:45:53 +0000

Has anyone heard if TMP Directory Marketing is being sold?

By: Canada’s YPG the Latest to Add Video « Screenwerk

Canada’s YPG the Latest to Add Video « Screenwerk — Thu, 17 Jan 2008 14:23:00 +0000

[...] they expect to buy online ads featuring videos within the next couple of years. And, as I argued here, video may be one of those products that maintains a competitive edge for YP publishers vs. the [...]

By: Will Local Advertising Suffer in Recessionary ‘08? Print vs Online? « Modelry

Wed, 16 Jan 2008 17:41:33 +0000

[...] Here is a link to the article: Will Print YP Suffer in Recessionary ‘08? « Screenwerk [...]

By: Greg Sterling

Greg Sterling — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 10:57:21 +0000

Interesting analysis. I know HouseValues well (or did). Psychology is a kind of “X factor” as you suggest. There are considerable barriers for SMB adoption of online marketing, which are quickly coming down.

However, “inertia” and habit are powerful forces in the lives of individuals and even at a cultural level. So I don’t doubt the RE trend you cite as a by-product of “irrational” factors. In the next year, we may see nationals accelerate and SMBs “retrench” in existing methods — so there may be a dichotomy in terms of “pull back” vs. shifting of dollars from traditional to online.

By: nparekh00

nparekh00 — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 00:04:06 +0000

Hey Greg, I am a former executive at an online Internet marketing firm called HouseValues Inc. We looked at the jobs market in the recession of 2001-2003 as a proxy for online ad spend where the recession accelerated the use of the Internet as the preferred marketing mechanism. In the real estate downturn of 2006 through today, we have actually seen a temporary retreat from online marketing and a return to traditional marketing. All online companies in the space have been devastated by the real estate downturn, BUT the real estate sections for many local papers grew in 2006-2007. Many agents had more listings on their hands and were looking to advertise listings versus generate new business which may be better suited offline than online. I also hypothesize when the average real estate agent (50 year old female, not online savvy in general) though about their marketing mix in a real estate downturn, they returned to the tried and true marketing mix of local newspaper and rack publications. I think this trend may turn around in 2008, but 2006 & 2007 have seen less online and more offline (in my analysis and opinion).

Not sure what this analogy means in the recession - will the general SMB market behave more like the help wanted category or the real estate section of the newspaper? I think a recession will drive a short term pull back from all marketing and online will be harder hit. Medium term online will come back stronger and faster than offline.

By: Greg Sterling

Greg Sterling — Mon, 14 Jan 2008 12:54:51 +0000

I wonder how representative (no pun intended) your experience is? Have you talked to reps at other companies?

By: Yellow Page Grunt

Yellow Page Grunt — Sun, 13 Jan 2008 16:57:01 +0000

To add to darknight’s comments …
I work for a telco YP. My commission-based income is down 45% in the last four months of 2007 compared to the same period in 2006. And in my office of 40 reps, everybody’s income is down 10% ot 15% on the from a year earlier. And the geo-market we work is one of the most lucrative in the country.

Another thing ailing telco YPs that few consider is their 100-year legacy. Today, “the rules rule,” meaning if a customers request doesn’t fit into a decision matrix - like YP discounts only if an internet product is sold, even if the customer doesn’t want the internet product - then the customer is canceled. In other words, when “the rules rule,” the company would rather force the model than keep a customer. That is arrogance. And that non-flexible arrogance, perhaps more than even the Internet’s emergence, may prove to be the downfall of legacy YP publishers.

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