Chris Smith, who’s speaking at SMX Local & Mobile next week, wrote the “Locals Only” column this week at Search Engine Land. His column is provocatively titled, “Google Trends: Yellow Pages Will Be Toast In Four Years.”
Smith, who used to work for Superpages, makes a thoughtful argument backed up by data from Google Trends (which are narrow but arguably directional). Here’s are a couple of excerpts:
It’s my opinion that Google’s (and the other top search engines) innovations in local search combined with increasing inclusion of business listing data in the search engine results pages (“SERPs”) is causing users’ behavior to change. Users are finding more and more of the information they’re seeking directly in SERPs, negating the need to find Internet Yellow Pages…
My gut feeling is that the Google Trends graph for searches for “yellow pages” is likely representative of a broad behavioral pattern of Internet users who are going to traditional Yellow Pages sites less and less. If we project the pattern out in time, we can see that searches for “yellow pages” might reduce down to nil by as soon as 2011…
Am I predicting the demise of the Yellow Pages and other local directories based off these projections? Not really! There’s too much investment in these companies for them to sit idly by as their market share and business foundations erode to search engine competition. The savvy companies are evolving themselves to stay relevant in the new paradigms…
It’s a polarizing and interesting argument. Many will read it and say “you’re right.” Others will vehemently disagree.
But I think Chris has given me my opening question for the “Introducing the Local Search Engines Panel” at the show. Here are the panel speakers:
Speakers:
- Heath Clarke, Chairman & CEO, Local.com
- Matt Crowley, CMO, YellowPages.com
- Matthew Berk, Marchex Lead Search Architect, Marchex
- Frazier Miller, Director of Product Management, Yahoo! Local Jill Hammond, Head of Innovation & Strategy, RH Donnelley
September 25, 2007 at 5:20 pm |
I’m not sure that all those graphs provide the evidence, but it’s hard to disagree with the idea that IYPs are seriously threatened by the (increasingly adept) surfacing of local listings within “regular” Google/Yahoo SERPs. Anyone who wants to battle the resulting consumer behavior must provide a compelling benefit that can’t easily be replicated in a SERP. I doubt that the IYPs will rise to this challenge; innovation isn’t their forte. Someone will, though — and that’ll pose yet another threat to the IYPs.
Are the IYP sites therefore doomed to fade away? I think not, at least not in the medium term. The big players are getting more serious about marketing, and will probably spend a bundle to pump (or prop) things up.
After some panicky spending, however, they’ll realize that their Web brands aren’t strategic, per se: It’s the ads themselves, the distribution network (regardless of brand), and the sales force that feeds it.
In this regard, the IYPs should be working hard to secure (or in some cases extend) a working relationship with key search portals — not just in walled-off “Yellow Pages” products, but as a strategic supplier of local ads everywhere. That includes ads on the very SERPs that are threatening their Web brands. They can’t stop that trend, so they need to get on board.
September 25, 2007 at 6:15 pm |
The real question is whether the YPs can build out a meaningful digital business in the face of seriously declining print usage and now, revenue, which feeds their ability to successfully compete online. How patient will the bankers and shareholders be in weighing the implications of a dollar in print in exchange for a dime online?