I meant to post on this MediaPost piece (reg req’d) that discusses a Merrill Lynch report about an expected decline in ad spending. The “bright spot” is the Internet and digital media, while: “[t]he dark spots, according to Merrill Lynch, include traditional media such as newspapers, which have not benefited from banner political year spending in its electronic counterparts.”
As quoted by MediaPost, Merrill Lynch opines:
“We had recently lowered our newspaper forecast from 1.2 percent to flat growth in fiscal year 2006 and 1.1 percent to down 1.5 percent in fiscal year 2007, causing much of the reduction in our ad forecast,” says [Lauren Rich] Fine, adding that cable TV ad sales also have been “weak,” but both broadcast and cable scatter markets “seem stronger now.”
And MediaPost summarizes:
Merrill Lynch now expects it to grow 4.7 percent during 2006, down from 5.1 percent in its last forecast. The global ad market now is expected to rise only 4.3 percent vs. 4.9 percent in its last outlook.
I fear the time when my “recession hypothesis” will be tested is coming.
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MediaPost rounds up more online spending predictions.
